Plan Five for the St. Louis Cardinals
The Bleacher Reports Over the following five years, Kerry Miller failed to rank the Cardinals among the top fifteen teams.
Well-run companies have outlooks and backup plans for the short, medium, and long terms. Organizations in baseball shouldn’t be any different.
A strong organization will continue to field a competitive MLB team and have an abundance of talented prospects in the pipeline. Furthermore, the franchise’s management will be prepared to spend money on both current players and free agents.
Kerry Miller of Bleacher Report recently completed an exercise in which he evaluated the 10 franchises that have the best chance of succeeding over the next five years. He took into account the teams’ chances of winning the World Series this year, players who are under team control through at least 2028, the best prospects in each organization’s system, and the front office’s financial capacity by examining payrolls from previous years.
Miller’s list didn’t even include the St. Louis Cardinals among the honorable mentions. The Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates were voted 10th and 9th, respectively, while division rivals Milwaukee Brewers and Chicago Cubs were awarded honorable mentions.
In what areas are the Cardinals lacking?
In almost every area, that is. In the last four seasons, the Cardinals have outspent only five of the top ten teams on Miller’s list. Moreover, whichever projection method you select, the Cardinals are not favored to win the World Series over any of the teams on the list.
The Cardinals have very few regular players under contract through 2028 and beyond when it comes to controllable assets. Cot’s claims that while other important players like Lars Nootbaar, Brendan Donovan, Sonny Gray, Nolan Arenado, and Willson Contreras will all be on the roster then, Nolan Gorman, Alec Burleson, Jordan Walker, Matthew Liberatore, Ivan Herrera, Masyn Winn, Michael Siani, and Victor Scott II won’t. be free agents in the coming years.
The Cardinals are also lacking in prospect rankings. Bleacher Report’s Joel Reuter released updated prospect rankings in mid-May. He placed Tekoah Roby, Cooper Hjerpe, and Thomas Saggese as players on the outside of the list. Victor Scott II ranked 98 and Tink Hence was 38th. Only two top-100 prospects doesn’t spell success long term for an organization.
Is this a fair assessment of the organization?
It likely is, but there’s a bit of a variance with the Cardinals. The DeWitt family has consistently been willing to have a payroll in the 10-15 range in baseball with a willingness to expand ever so slightly into the top-10 (see 2021). The prospects the Cardinals have are probably aptly valued, but players like Quinn Mathews, Chen-Wei Lin, and Chase Davis are a bit undervalued nationally.
The team’s current crop of young players like Masyn Winn, Nolan Gorman, Ivan Herrera, Alec Burleson, Jordan Walker, and Matthew Liberatore are strong pieces to build around. Among players in the National League alone, Masyn Winn and Nolan Gorman are both in the top 87 in fWAR (though Winn’s errors harm his overall ranking on FanGraphs). Ivan Herrera has been a top catcher offensively since replacing the injured Willson Contreras, and Alec Burleson is coming into his own this year. Libby is settling in nicely as a leverage reliever.
The team’s World Series aspirations this year are a bit of a pipe dream. The 6th Wild Card spot opens up an opportunity for many middle-of-the-pack teams, but the Cardinals have some additions that need to be made for them to be taken seriously in the playoffs. The last two National League representatives were both Wild Card teams though, so the opportunity is quite apparent.
As of right moment, the Cardinals’ five-year plan is a little lackluster. Nonetheless, the Cardinals are renowned for their consistency, and a strong draft pick this year along with some significant additions through trades and free agency will turn the franchise around. The Birds on the Bat are always reliable.
