How Aston Villa’s PSR battle impacts Man Utd talks to sign Ollie Watkins

Manchester United’s pursuit of a striker is now expected to go one of two ways this summer, Ollie Watkins or Benjamin Sesko.

After several options have been considered in recent months, it finally seems like Manchester United’s striker decision has been narrowed down.

On the one hand, United are interested in signing Benjamin Sesko from RB Leipzig, with the Slovenian striker also interested in the move, having been linked with the club for the past two years.

Head of recruitment, Christopher Vivell, is driving United’s desire to sign Sesko, but he isn’t the only option on the table.

Aston Villa’s Ollie Watkins is Rio Ferdinand’s choice for United striker, and it looks increasingly likely that the England international will be chosen, as he fits in with the other business completed this summer.

Watkins has voiced his unhappiness at Villa, having been benched for Marcus Rashford last season, and this has opened the door for his exit, which could complete the attacking overhaul United needed.

Ollie Watkins in black Aston Villa kit facing Manchester United.
Photo by Alex Livesey/Getty Images

What Aston Villa’s PSR struggles could mean for Manchester United and Ollie Watkins

Signing Watkins would add another Premier League proven forward to an attack now consisting Bryan Mbeumo and Matheus Cunha. Watkins scored 16 goals last season in the league, bringing a guarantee which Sesko wouldn’t.

Watkins would also be cheaper, due to Villa facing financial problems in regard to PSR, as GRV’s head of football finance, Adam Williams, has now told United in Focus.

“We know that Villa were about to fail PSR for the three-year assessment period up until the end of 2024-25 because otherwise they wouldn’t have agreed a deal to sell their women’s team to their owners, which they are going to attempt to justify to the Premier League’s fair market value panel by also selling a minority stake to an unnamed US private investment firm.

“At present, we don’t know if that deal has gone through or not. But they had an agreement in principle before the PSR deadline on 30 June, so that should be enough to get them over the line. As it happens, UEFA don’t accept these kinds of intra-company asset deals, so that’s why they have failed the European PSR equivalent.

“The good news for Villa is that the £120m they lost in 2022-23 is now no longer part of the equation. They still lost £86m in 2023-24, however, and while we don’t have the figures available for 2024-25 yet, the losses were clearly sufficient that they had to do something to satisfy the Premier League.

“Since buying the club, Wes Edens and Nassef Sawiris have lost over £400m. They now have a huge wage bill of over £250m and player amortisation costs that are touching £100m.

“As for Watkins, he signed for about £28m in 2020 and extended his contract in 2023. His remaining book value is just less than £7m, so for PSR purposes Villa would probably be making a profit of around £35m if they sold him to Man United. That’s very significant for the profit-and-loss account, which is what we calculate their PSR position based on. He’s 29, and his value is probably going to start depreciating pretty quickly.

“With Villa where they are with Premier League PSR and the UEFA settlement, I think an offer of £40-45m from United would make sense for Villa on paper. They have pushed the limits of what is possible with PSR, but they are probably going to have to relent at some point. They have to balance that with what gives them the best chance of success on the pitch, of course.”

£40m Ollie Watkins would be a bargain for Manchester United

With Watkins’s predicted value of between £40m and £45m, the prospects of signing him have just improved, as for that price he would be a bargain.

Over the past three years in the Premier League alone, Watkins has scored 15 goals (2022/23), 19 goals (2023/24) and last season scored 16. So even on the lower end of this for United would be a huge upgrade on Rasmus Hojlund.

Additionally, Watkins consistently gets a lot of assists, with eight last season and 13 in the 2023/24 campaign, showing why Mbeumo and Cunha would want to play alongside him.

Mbeumo and Watkins actually played together at Brentford and it could be a similar story for United.

Combined, the three attackers scored 51 goals last season in the Premier League alone, which is six more than United’s entire squad managed over the course of the season.

£167m would be the rough combined fee, which would soon look cheap if they were to score even close to this amount next season for United.

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