The air is thick with anticipation. Across the country, fans are dreaming of glory, buzzing with the optimism that only a new Premier League season can bring. Pre-season transfer speculation, tactical debate and the fervent hope that this might be the year has reached fever pitch.

While the emotions run high, The Telegraph’s internal Data Science team has been busy with a different kind of anticipation, a colder, more-calculated one.

Leveraging the power of machine learning and extensive simulations, we’ve been churning through vast amounts of historical data and performance metrics to create an unprecedented forecast for the 2025-26 season. And the numbers, devoid of fan sentiment, paint a vivid predictive picture: a title race reignited, Champions League contenders jostling for position, and a nail-biting scrap at the bottom of the table.

Title race down to the wire

The data suggest a familiar duel at the summit, but with a twist. Liverpool are projected to be the dominant force, our simulations forecasting a significant leap from 84 points to a staggering 98 points, cementing their status as title favourites with a 61 per cent probability. Our models favoured Liverpool’s high scores in statistical elements from recent matches such as high threat efficiency and goal-creating actions.

However, the narrative isn’t a foregone conclusion. Manchester City, while predicted to finish second, are set for a remarkable surge of 25 points, propelling them to 96 points and a second-place finish. This is a substantial upward swing, hinting at a fierce battle that could go down to the wire. The data suggest City are the prime contenders to challenge Liverpool’s dominance despite their blip last season, making this a potential title showdown of epic proportions. The models were particularly impressed by City’s relentless forward drive – with a progression rating (a measure of how effectively a team moves the ball into threatening areas) around 40 per cent above the league average.

Chelsea overhaul Arsenal and return of fallen giant

Beyond the top two, the data indicate a tightening race for the coveted Champions League spots. Chelsea are showing the most dramatic resurgence, with a predicted plus-21-point gain to 90 points and a jump to third. This is a significant uplift, and if our simulations hold true, Chelsea could be back challenging at the very top, reminiscent of their historic plus-43-point surge in 2016-17.

Arsenal, after a consecutive second-place finish last season, are projected to drop to fourth with 87 points. While still a strong Champions League contender, the data suggest they’ll need to fight harder to maintain their elite status.

Tottenham Hotspur emerge as the season’s biggest surprise package, with our models predicting a 39-point increase to 77 points and a move up to fifth. This meteoric rise, the third-largest projected point swing in the data, positions them firmly in the hunt for a top-five spot, a dramatic turnaround from their 17th-place finish last season under Ange Postecoglou and Champions League qualification for new head coach Thomas Frank.

Newcastle United and Aston Villa, last season’s European qualifiers, are projected to see a dip in their fortunes. Newcastle are predicted to finish sixth with 70 points, a slight decrease and a drop in position, while Aston Villa face a more significant challenge, with a projected minus-eight-point swing leading them to 58 points and a seventh-place finish. Their European qualification probability drops significantly, suggesting they’ll need to buck the trend to replicate last season’s success.

Forest fall, United rise

The mid-table battle promises to be as intense as ever. Manchester United are showing signs of life, but only just with a projected plus-14-point increase on their worst points return in 51 years last season to 56 points and a rise to 10th. While not threatening the top spots, this represents a solid forecasted improvement.

However, the data also highlight some concerning trends for other established clubs. Nottingham Forest, who finished an impressive seventh last season (their best season since 1995) are predicted to plummet to 14th with a significant average minus-26-point drop. The models did not like elements from their recent matches such as the number of passes in the final third, a stark warning, suggesting a difficult campaign ahead.

Similarly, Brighton & Hove Albion are forecast to fall by seven points to 54, dropping to 11th. The data indicate these teams will need to find significant answers to avoid a slide.

A familiar three-way battle for survival

The relegation fight paints a grim picture for several clubs. While the focus often shifts to the glory at the top, the stark reality for those battling at the wrong end of the table is equally fascinating.

The model signals a particularly challenging year for Everton. Last season’s 13th-place finish with 48 points was at the very limit of their expected performance and returns this season are projected to take a significant nosedive. Our simulations foresee a minus-16-point swing, potentially landing them on a precarious 32 points and a 16th-place finish. Though the data suggest a season where survival will be the primary, and potentially all-consuming, objective, a 12 per cent probability of relegation should slightly ease any fears in the blue half of Merseyside.